Export, Exchange Rate, Inflation, FDI, and Economic Growth in Bangladesh: A Time Series Analysis
- By Al Mamun; Arfun Ara; M H M Imrul Kabir
- Exports, exchange rate, inflation, FDI, and economic growth; ARDL time-series econometrics
đź“Ś 1. Project Title
Export, Exchange Rate, Inflation, FDI, and Economic Growth in Bangladesh: A Time Series Analysis
CPER Working Paper Series No. 05 (Published on 12 February 2024).
đź“Š 2. Sample Size / Data Used
- Data type: Secondary macroeconomic time-series data
- Data period: 1986–2022 (annual data)
- Sample size: 37 annual observations (1986 to 2022 inclusive)
- The study uses annual time-series data on key macroeconomic variables, including exports, the exchange rate, inflation, FDI (foreign direct investment), and GDP (economic growth).
🤝 3. Partners
- Conducted independently by the Center for Policy and Economic Research (CPER) using CPER’s own funds.
- No formal external partner organizations are listed in the working paper page.
👩‍🔬 4. Personnel (Authors / Researchers)
- Al Mamun – Lead researcher
- Arfun Ara – Co-researcher
- M H M Imrul Kabir – Co-researcher
🧠5. Topics Covered
The study explores key macroeconomic relationships in Bangladesh’s economy with emphasis on:
- Exports and economic growth – estimating how export performance influences GDP growth over the long run and short run.
- Exchange rate effects – assessing how currency movements affect export competitiveness and overall economic performance.
- Inflation dynamics – evaluating the impact of inflation on economic growth.
- Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) – analysing how FDI contributes to growth outcomes.
- Time-series econometric methods – using ARDL (autoregressive distributed lag) modelling to estimate both short-term and long-term relationships.
These topics position the study within macroeconomic performance analysis, external sector dynamics, and policy implications for growth strategies in middle-income emerging economies.
đź“Ť 6. Location
- Bangladesh — the research focuses on the national macroeconomic context, examining how domestic and external economic variables interact with Bangladesh’s overall economic growth trajectory.