Export, Exchange Rate, Inflation, FDI, and Economic Growth in Bangladesh: A Time Series Analysis
- By Al Mamun; Arfun Ara; M H M Imrul Kabir
- Exports, exchange rate, inflation, FDI, and economic growth; ARDL time-series econometrics
Project Description:
This project examines how key macroeconomic factors influence long-term economic growth in Bangladesh. Using annual data from 1986 to 2022, the study analyzes the effects of inflation, exchange rates, foreign direct investment (FDI), and exports on the country’s economic performance. The research applies the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model to investigate both short-run and long-run relationships, providing a comprehensive understanding of the factors that shape economic growth over time.
The study explores how exchange rate changes affect export competitiveness, assesses the roles of inflation and FDI in supporting sustainable growth, and evaluates exports' contribution to the economy. By identifying the long-term relationships among these macroeconomic variables, the research highlights the opportunities and challenges facing Bangladesh as it continues its economic transformation amid changing global conditions.
The findings provide evidence-based policy recommendations to strengthen macroeconomic stability, improve the investment climate, promote export diversification, and support sustainable economic growth. The project demonstrates CPER’s commitment to producing high-quality, policy-oriented research that informs economic decision-making and contributes to Bangladesh’s long-term development.
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