The Role of Agriculture, Industry, and Services Sector in the Economic Growth of Bangladesh: An ARDL Analysis
- By Al Mamun
- ARDL, agriculture, industry, services, economic growth, structural transformation, Bangladesh
Project Description:
This project examines how the agriculture, industry, and services sectors have contributed to Bangladesh’s economic growth over the past five decades. Using annual data from 1971 to 2020, the study explores both the short-term and long-term roles of these three major sectors in supporting the country’s economic development. The research applies the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model to identify the long-run relationships between sectoral performance and economic growth while ensuring the reliability of the results through a series of diagnostic and stability tests.
The study evaluates how Bangladesh’s economy has evolved through structural transformation, with labor and resources gradually shifting from agriculture to industry and services. It compares the relative contributions of each sector and assesses their importance in sustaining long-term economic growth. The findings show that the services sector has become the largest driver of growth, while industry continues to make an important contribution and agriculture remains a key pillar of the economy despite its declining share in national output.
The project provides evidence-based insights to support balanced sectoral development, economic diversification, and sustainable growth. Its findings can help policymakers design strategies that strengthen productivity, promote industrial development, modernize agriculture, and expand the services sector. Through this research, CPER contributes high-quality policy analysis that supports informed decision-making and Bangladesh’s long-term economic transformation.
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